Presented by Megan Bludau, Mortgage Loan Officer with Contour Mortgage (NMLS #2466297), in collaboration with Jamie McMartin and The Jamie McMartin Group at Compass.
I hear it all the time from buyers across Houston, Katy, Fulshear, and Cypress:
“Rates are just too high right now. I think I’ll wait until they come back down before buying.”
And honestly? I get it. We’ve all had that thought. Who doesn’t want the lowest mortgage rate possible?
But here’s the thing most buyers in today’s Houston real estate market don’t realize, waiting for mortgage rates to drop might cost you more than buying now. Let’s unpack why.
What if mortgage rates drop next year?
Let’s say mortgage rates fall to 5.5% sometime next year. That feels like a win, right?
If you’re buying a $500,000 home with 10% down, the difference between a 7% rate and a 5.5% rate could save you roughly $350 per month in interest.
Sounds great, but here’s the other side of the equation.
During that same time, home prices in Texas are expected to continue appreciating, and many neighborhoods in Katy, Fulshear, and Cypress are already trending higher.
That same $500,000 home could realistically be $545,000–$560,000 next year.
So yes, your rate might drop.
But your purchase price just went up.
You saved on interest, but you paid more for the house.
Why waiting still doesn’t always work in today’s Texas market
Yes, inventory levels have improved across Texas, including the greater Houston real estate market. Buyers have more choices and slightly more breathing room than we’ve seen in recent years.
But here’s the important part: higher inventory hasn’t translated into major price drops.
That’s because:
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New construction costs remain high due to materials, labor, and insurance
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Population growth in areas like Katy, Fulshear, and Fort Bend County continues to drive steady demand
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Most sellers still have low-rate mortgages, which limits the number of “desperate” listings that typically cause price declines
So while it’s a healthier market with more selection, it’s not a collapsing one.
And when mortgage rates do drop, buyer competition will heat up again, often pushing prices right back up. This is something we see consistently when working with Jamie McMartin and The Jamie McMartin Group, who are deeply plugged into local Houston market trends.
Real talk: you can always refinance later
Here’s a simple phrase my clients know by heart:
“Marry the house. Date the rate.”
When you buy now, you:
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Lock in your home price.
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Start building equity.
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Position yourself for appreciation.
When rates drop, you refinance, and keep the house you love with a lower payment.
But if you wait? You’re essentially renting the same timeline with none of the financial upside of homeownership.
The timing analogy
Waiting for the “perfect” interest rate is like waiting for the “perfect” time to make any major life move, starting a business, switching careers, or relocating.
There’s always something that makes the timing feel uncertain.
But the people who act strategically, with the right plan and the right team, like a trusted Houston Realtor and lending partner, are almost always glad they didn’t wait.
The same is true for homeownership.
The bottom line
You don’t need to time the market, you just need a smart strategy.
If you’re financially ready, the cost of waiting almost always outweighs the benefit of a slightly lower rate later.
You can refinance a rate.
You can’t refinance missed appreciation.
Ready to see what makes sense for you?
Let’s look at your real numbers (price range, timeline, and goals) and build a strategy that balances rate, payment, and opportunity.
👉 Start your pre-approval.
👉 Connect with Jamie McMartin and The Jamie McMartin Group at Compass.
Megan Bludau
Mortgage Loan Officer | NMLS #2466297
Contour Mortgage
📧 [email protected]
📞 (817) 733-8792
📸 Instagram: @lendingwithmeg